From Mario Kart to FPL: Gaming Lessons for a More Exciting Fantasy
Read the Spanish version here
Introduction
Hello, I hope you're enjoying the summer, having fun, and following the national football tournaments, whether it's the Euros or the Copa América. At Bendito Fantasy, we've been with you every step of the way during this summer of international football, but we're about to return to regular FPL service according to a post on social media from the official Premier League and fantasy accounts. In the message they posted on social media, the "FPL towers" hint that something will change for this season. Speculations have already begun, with some believing it will involve more points being available, such as for ball recoveries, and others going further. I am one of those. In the following lines, I send this message and idea to the mentioned "FPL towers." I express an idea that, although not original, has an element of surprise that hasn't been explored in fantasy mini-leagues. For weeks, I've mentioned that the FPL creators have stumbled upon a solution to a serious problem: the formation of a "template" that makes the game harder and more monotonous. Monotony kills hope many times. Every year we see a record number of FPL subscribers, exceeding 11 million in recent seasons. However, some players lose interest after creating their team and stop participating. The problem is that the "template" makes the teams so similar that many lose interest as the season progresses because the top positions become substantially out of reach, and maintaining attention becomes futile. This article explores how to keep interest throughout the 38 FPL matchdays and how the FPL towers can improve the game experience.
The Hidden Solution in the Challenge
The new Challenge format, launched as a pilot in the 23-24 season, could be the solution we seek. Although it's fun for a week, it quickly loses charm because it doesn't have a way to accumulate and compete long-term. However, if a smart programmer adapts the Challenge ideas to the main game, it could give a complete twist to the season.
Challenging the Algorithm: A Radical Approach
The use of models to predict lineups, points, and results has gained strength in recent seasons, but Challenge could break these models. To explain this, I want to delve into a game theory concept and how it can be applied to FPL in an innovative way.
Nash Equilibrium and Its Relation to FPL
A classic example of game theory is Nash equilibrium, which occurs when no player can improve their situation by changing their strategy if others maintain theirs. To give an example that is probably easy for everyone to understand, in the classic game "Mario Kart," this could manifest in how players use items (like red shells, bananas, and stars). If all players use their items optimally, any individual player's strategy change (without changing the others) would not improve their position. This is exactly what happens to us with the "template" in FPL. In "Mario Kart," the items you get from the boxes largely depend on your position in the race. Players in more lagging positions are more likely to get powerful items like lightning or blue shells, while players in the leading positions get defensive or less impactful items like bananas or green shells.
Application in FPL: Breaking the Static Equilibrium
Imagine a scenario where you are in the last place in your mini-league and a chip is activated only for the last positions or a certain percentage of subscribers. This new chip could be something like what we saw in Challenge, where all your players in a derby match get double points. In this scenario, the current predictive models would break, as you couldn't predict with such accuracy when to use that chip. Lagging players would have the opportunity to improve their score substantially and climb up the general ranking. Of course, as long as they have the right players at the right time. This adds a level of uncertainty and excitement, breaking with the classic strategies that many content creators already know by heart.
Benefits of Breaking the Equilibrium
Hope and Anticipation: The possibility of getting powerful items creates a sense of hope and anticipation, crucial for maintaining player interest and engagement. Knowing that you could get an item that drastically changes your current position adds excitement and a "never give up" dynamic, keeping players engaged until the end of the season.
Perception of Fairness: The distribution of items also helps maintain a perception of fairness in the game. Players in the last positions have the opportunity to make a comeback, reducing frustration and increasing overall satisfaction. This mechanic ensures the game doesn't feel unfair or biased towards players always in the lead, who use models or are lucky in choosing players.
Variability and Replayability: The randomness in item acquisition adds variability to each matchday, ensuring no game is exactly the same as another. This variability increases replayability, as players always face new situations and challenges to adapt to and overcome.
Detailed Example: Implementation of the Dynamic Chip
Scenario: Activation of the Challenge Chip
Condition: Players in the bottom 10% of the general ranking.
Chip: All players in a derby match get double points or some of the other variants implemented in Challenge.
Impact on Models: Predictive models will not be able to anticipate when this chip will activate or how it will affect specific players using it. This introduces a new variable that can't be easily modeled or predicted.
Player Strategy:
Players must strategically plan who to line up based on the possibility of the chip activating.
Players are encouraged to keep an eye on local derbies or relevant matches in the season and consider players from less popular teams who could benefit from this unexpected boost.
Potential Results:
Renewed Interest: Players lagging in their leagues will see a new opportunity to make a comeback.
More Dynamic Decisions: FPL managers will have to constantly adapt to new variables, making the game more dynamic and less predictable.
Continuous Engagement: With the possibility of these chips activating at crucial moments, more players will be motivated to continue participating actively throughout the season.
Comparison with Other Scoring Systems
In UEFA fantasy games, the scoring systems are more granular, integrating more footballers into our squads. For example, defensive midfielders and defenders don't overwhelmingly depend on clean sheets. This type of scoring makes less popular players viable and attractive, adding more depth and variability to managers' strategies.
Implementation Proposal in FPL:
Granular Scoring: Implement a more detailed scoring system that values both defensive and offensive contributions from all players, not just the most prominent ones.
Secret Chips: Introduce chips revealed one matchday before to allow players to adjust their strategies.
Chip Frequency: Distribute these chips throughout the season, every 5 matches, creating up to 7 occasions where everything gets interesting.
Conclusion
The mechanism is already implemented in Challenge. The next step is to make it accessible to the general game, make it random, and decide its frequency. I hope these ideas find the necessary echo to shake up our beloved game, which hasn't seen an interesting revolution of this magnitude for a while.
“La cuenta oficial de FPL promete cambios para esta nueva edición, yo espero muy poco pero hay espacio para cambios radicales. ¿Tu que esperas?”
